IntroThe Boston Celtics won the NBA championship last night, with a 106-88 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. The title, the franchise's 18th, was its first since 2008 and cements the Celtics as the winningest franchise in NBA history (the Lakers and Celtics had previously been tied with 17 championships apiece). And while the team's playoff run was fairly smooth, the Celtics faced their fare share of scrutiny. When a team wins a championship, everything magically makes sense. An inexperienced head coach is all of a sudden a genius. Two superstars who supposedly couldn't co-exist now seem poised to chase several championships together. Big man, Kristaps Porzingis, went from stat chaser on other teams to a missing piece in Boston. Today, we explore how it happened and the incredible importance of timing in the NBA. Roster ConstructionFans are victims of the moment. It's for this reason that every time a team wins a championship, fans of other teams almost immediately ask, "How did that other team get all of those guys on one squad?" The long answer is that it's complicated. We could go player by player and explain what happened in each scenario. The short answer is simple. Here's Boston's 2023-2024 payroll courtesy of HoopsHype. The first, and most obvious thing you'll notice, is that Boston's two best players, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, don't make the most on the team. While Brown and Tatum are set up for monster paydays down the road, their production vs. what they make is a HUGE reason Boston just won a title. Paying them less allowed Brad Stevens to miraculously swoop in and sign Jrue Holiday when the opportunity presented itself. The second thing is that Boston just proved that you don't need a point guard to win an NBA championship. Instead, the Celtics built a team where all five players were both inside and outside threats. A lot of teams claim to play "positionless" basketball. This Boston team should be the example that is used when explaining how it's done. Next, you'l notice that Boston didn't have a 1st round draft pick in 2021, 2022, or 2023. By design, Stephens was able to avoid tying up money in a guaranteed contract. Boston relied heavily on their starters, but they did get meaningful bench contributions from Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser. While many teams will pay $8-$15 million/season for guys first off the bench, Sam Hauser's three year, $6 million deal that was signed in the summer of 2022 is a great example of a smart general manager and a player outperforming his contract. Last, as a former athlete, I think it's incredibly important to credit the training staff. While Kristaps Porzingis did injure his leg in The Finals, Boston was able to run the table without any significant injuries. Timing MattersWhile the pieces need to come together on the floor, a savvy general manager knows that their are windows in time that offer the best opportunities for success. For example, last summer Jaylen Brown signed a monster five-year extension for $303 million. The extension, though, doesn't kick in until the 2024-2025 season. So, while Brown pocketed almost $32 million this past season, his salary will skyrocket to more than $49 million next season. Brad Stevens saw the opportunity and knew he'd have some wiggle room. Stevens is going to have a similar situation this summer with Jayson Tatum, who should net around $315 million in an extension that would start in the fall of 2025. 2023-2024 was the perfect storm for Stevens, because both players were making less than market value. Sam Hauser will have a team option for next year, but at roughly $2 million, the Celtics will undoubtably bring him back. The key question will be how much will Boston be willing to pay when Hauser becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2025. The Celtics are obviously huge fans of Hauser's ability to shoot the three, but maybe just as important, is his ability to defend. According to The Celtics Files, Hauser was a top 10 defensive player in the league in the month of March! Ages MatterOne of the real ironies in professional sports is that young players are often victims of their own success. When Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors beat Boston to win the 2022 NBA Title, Jayson Tatum was 24 and Jaylen Brown, 25. In the two years since, both have taken on their fair share of criticism. Nobody is perfect, so I'm not saying it was all undeserved. The objective look back, though, paints a simple picture: these guys were young and still learning the game. Now, two years later, Tatum at 26 and Brown at 27 are the perfect comps for other first-time NBA champions: Lebron James was 27 when he won his first championship in 2012. Steph Curry was 26, Michael Jordan, Kevin Durant, and Shaq were all 28. There's a special window for NBA players between about 26 and 32. A lot of these guys may actually play their best individual basketball prior to this window, but there's a maturity that has to take place. Often this comes in the former of being humbled in previous championship quests, injuries, or coaching changes. The path is never linear. Luka Doncic, who's 25 years old, may have just experienced this. The Quest For Number TwoCan the Celtics go back to back?
At first glance, the answer is yes, and here's why: All of their significant contributors are under contract for next season. The only player who played playoff minutes who isn't under contract is Xavier Tillman. Boston has the last pick of the 1st round in next week's NBA Draft, which be held June 26-27th. The Celtics could move this pick if they have their eyes on a free agent. Time will tell. At their very core, Boston will go as far as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown take them. With both in line to start cashing some serious checks, look for Boston to compete for multiple titles in the next 2-4 years. Tags:
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AuthorJohn Willkom is the author of Amazon best-selling basketball books: Walk-On Warrior and No Fear In The Arena. John is an avid reader, sports fan, and father to two incredible little girls. Archives
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